diff --git a/connect/index.html b/connect/index.html index f214d5b..bb3e259 100644 --- a/connect/index.html +++ b/connect/index.html @@ -238,7 +238,6 @@ -
@@ -434,6 +433,5 @@

Use a model package directly.

}); })(); - diff --git a/contact/index.html b/contact/index.html index 001330c..3f11fd0 100644 --- a/contact/index.html +++ b/contact/index.html @@ -15,7 +15,6 @@ -
PolicyEngine Macro - + diff --git a/docs/index.html b/docs/index.html index 7df4a13..af13f0f 100644 --- a/docs/index.html +++ b/docs/index.html @@ -39,7 +39,6 @@ -
@@ -147,7 +146,6 @@

Compare two models

- - diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index 6f6c1d4..c62a310 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -24,7 +24,6 @@ -
@@ -228,6 +227,5 @@

Add the models to Claude or ChatGPT—or use them in your own code.

- diff --git a/integration/src/policyengine_macro/capabilities.py b/integration/src/policyengine_macro/capabilities.py index b5e9f33..e1276f2 100644 --- a/integration/src/policyengine_macro/capabilities.py +++ b/integration/src/policyengine_macro/capabilities.py @@ -184,11 +184,16 @@ def _quality(level: str, evidence: str, next_gate: str) -> dict: ), "predictive_validation": _quality( "moderate", - "Across 49 leakage-safe rolling origins, CPI beats no change at one- " - "and eight-quarter horizons, while GDP is about 6% worse; the separate " - "seven-quarter frozen-edge evaluation gives 0.32pp RMSE.", - "Compare with a declared BVAR benchmark and publish proper predictive " - "scores across the rolling origins.", + "Across 49 leakage-safe rolling origins, only 3 of 64 (variable, " + "horizon) cells differ significantly from a random walk by a " + "Diebold-Mariano test. UK CPI is significantly better at short " + "horizons (ratio 0.63, p<0.005 at h=1); UK GDP's higher ratio " + "(1.06-1.09) is NOT significant at any horizon (p=0.38-0.67), so " + "it is indistinguishable from the benchmark rather than beaten by " + "it. The exchange rate is significantly worse at h=8 (1.41, " + "p=0.03). The frozen-edge evaluation gives 0.32pp RMSE.", + "Add a declared BVAR benchmark, score the predictive densities " + "(not just point forecasts), and report interval coverage.", ), "identification_robustness": _quality( "moderate", @@ -219,9 +224,11 @@ def _quality(level: str, evidence: str, next_gate: str) -> dict: "frb-us": { "implementation_fidelity": _quality( "strong", - "The baseline and a reference shock match LONGBASE and pyfrbus at the " - "reference solver's numerical noise floor.", - "Extend like-for-like gates across official demos, closures and recodes.", + "The baseline and four like-for-like scenarios (monetary, fiscal " + "egfe, tax trp, non-inertial Taylor) match LONGBASE and pyfrbus at " + "the reference solver's numerical noise floor.", + "Extend like-for-like gates across further official demos, closures " + "and recodes; add the MCE expectations path.", ), "predictive_validation": _quality( "not_assessed", diff --git a/integration/src/policyengine_macro/core.py b/integration/src/policyengine_macro/core.py index d4888dd..c78ad2c 100644 --- a/integration/src/policyengine_macro/core.py +++ b/integration/src/policyengine_macro/core.py @@ -1766,7 +1766,7 @@ def _og_solve(solve_fn, **kwargs): failures are translated into clear messages: (a) no HuggingFace access to the dataset — set HUGGING_FACE_TOKEN; (b) policyengine-uk >= 2.89 renamed the dataset keys from enhanced_frs_2023_24_ to populace_uk_*, which - makes oguk 0.3.0 (pinning policyengine-uk==2.88.0) fail with a KeyError. + makes oguk 0.3.2 (pinning policyengine-uk==2.88.0) fail with a KeyError. """ try: return solve_fn(**kwargs) @@ -1777,7 +1777,7 @@ def _og_solve(solve_fn, **kwargs): "(a) no access to the enhanced-FRS dataset on HuggingFace — set " "HUGGING_FACE_TOKEN to a token with access " "(policyengine.tax_benefit_models.uk.ensure_datasets downloads " - "it); (b) incompatible policyengine-uk version — oguk 0.3.0 " + "it); (b) incompatible policyengine-uk version — oguk 0.3.2 " "requires policyengine-uk==2.88.0 (>= 2.89 renamed the datasets)" ": pip install 'policyengine-uk==2.88.0'." ) from e diff --git a/models/index.html b/models/index.html index ff33b42..a1ae397 100644 --- a/models/index.html +++ b/models/index.html @@ -15,7 +15,6 @@ -
PolicyEngine Macro - + diff --git a/obr/index.html b/obr/index.html index 9eb15f2..bf1fa3a 100644 --- a/obr/index.html +++ b/obr/index.html @@ -28,7 +28,6 @@ -
@@ -426,6 +425,5 @@

What is broken, and what is merely absent.

}); }); - diff --git a/olg/index.html b/olg/index.html index 6a901dd..bbdfdff 100644 --- a/olg/index.html +++ b/olg/index.html @@ -28,7 +28,6 @@ -
@@ -414,6 +413,5 @@

Experimental-grade wiring, stated plainly.

}); }); - diff --git a/papers/boe-svar/figures/rolling_evaluation.json b/papers/boe-svar/figures/rolling_evaluation.json index 4b8dace..e8b1a5b 100644 --- a/papers/boe-svar/figures/rolling_evaluation.json +++ b/papers/boe-svar/figures/rolling_evaluation.json @@ -1,5 +1,56 @@ { "method": "expanding-window pseudo-out-of-sample evaluation", + "origin_index": [ + 80, + 81, + 82, + 83, + 84, + 85, + 86, + 87, + 88, + 89, + 90, + 91, + 92, + 93, + 94, + 95, + 96, + 97, + 98, + 99, + 100, + 101, + 102, + 103, + 104, + 105, + 106, + 107, + 108, + 109, + 110, + 111, + 112, + 113, + 114, + 115, + 116, + 117, + 118, + 119, + 120, + 121, + 122, + 123, + 124, + 125, + 126, + 127, + 128 + ], "lags": 4, "origins": 49, "first_origin": 80, @@ -8,6 +59,7 @@ { "horizon": 1, "variables_beating_random_walk": 4, + "n_origins": 49, "relative_rmse_by_variable": { "world_gdp": 1.0449602705974248, "world_cpi": 0.7328656942968828, @@ -37,11 +89,852 @@ "cpisa": 1.0279533978722588, "cpi_energy": 5.22803238780597, "uk_gdp": 4.0721158021768025 + }, + "dm_stat_by_variable": { + "world_gdp": 0.582575469189247, + "world_cpi": -3.3602046102849155, + "oil_price": 0.8552333408207591, + "bank_rate": -1.4939078211926613, + "eri": 0.941662008935355, + "cpisa": -3.300553825440106, + "cpi_energy": -0.4507891636365008, + "uk_gdp": 0.8791281401499687 + }, + "dm_pvalue_by_variable": { + "world_gdp": 0.5629059685355942, + "world_cpi": 0.0015342036182246805, + "oil_price": 0.3966708506861968, + "bank_rate": 0.1417448221368488, + "eri": 0.3510810214678084, + "cpisa": 0.0018251499178248238, + "cpi_energy": 0.6541713412599799, + "uk_gdp": 0.3837117600524136 + }, + "bvar_errors_by_origin": { + "world_gdp": [ + 0.4727662299528106, + 0.3104611193452911, + 0.5485470407870139, + 0.07256626851437886, + -0.4041871307054521, + -0.1482326310469375, + -0.0006363486239138183, + 0.06788851481371694, + -0.0442371505095025, + -0.19366699424961098, + 0.038362765733268134, + -0.3915827276163668, + 0.07448940357852507, + 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-2.4362109999999575, + -2.8089520000000903, + -2.710886999999957 + ] } } ], "limitations": [ "Errors use the transformed model units supplied by the caller.", "This evaluates reduced-form forecasts, not structural identification.", - "No-change is a minimum benchmark, not an official forecast comparison." + "No-change is a minimum benchmark, not an official forecast comparison.", + "Diebold-Mariano p-values are per (variable, horizon) and are not adjusted for testing the whole grid.", + "Estimation uses final (revised) data, so this is pseudo- not real-time out-of-sample." ], "variables": [ "world_gdp", diff --git a/papers/index.html b/papers/index.html index b9980fb..a9ccf08 100644 --- a/papers/index.html +++ b/papers/index.html @@ -27,7 +27,6 @@ -
@@ -84,6 +83,5 @@

- diff --git a/pe/index.html b/pe/index.html index 9b531bc..b294a48 100644 --- a/pe/index.html +++ b/pe/index.html @@ -28,7 +28,6 @@ -
@@ -369,6 +368,5 @@

Scope and vintage.

}); }); - diff --git a/reports/us-hank-open-source.html b/reports/us-hank-open-source.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ae4cb3e --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/us-hank-open-source.html @@ -0,0 +1,90 @@ + + + + + + Open US HANK models — code, data, reach + + + +
+
+
+
PolicyEngine Macro · feasibility note
+

Open US HANK models

+

Public code, data, citations, GitHub activity and analytical coverage. Citation counts use canonical OpenAlex records; stars use the GitHub API.

+
+
AS OF 21 JUL 2026
A4 · ONE-PAGE EDITION
+
+ +

Best complete candidate: Bayer–Born–Lütticke provides the clearest combination of a US-calibrated model, public data, estimation machinery, replication targets and an explicit GPL-3.0 licence. Sequence-Space Jacobian is the strongest Python foundation, but is not itself a fully estimated institutional US model.

+ +
+ + + + + + + + + + +
Model / resourceYearCitationsStarsCode and dataCoverage
Bayer–Born–Lütticke
Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles		2024464Both available
Julia · GPL-3.0		US business cycles; income and wealth inequality; one-/two-asset households; portfolio choice; fiscal and monetary shocks; Bayesian estimation. Aggregate quarterly data approximately 1954Q3–2019Q4.
FRBNY Estimating HANK
Central-bank estimation and forecast evaluation		2023105Code + BBL data
Julia · licence not explicit		Recursive Bayesian estimation and pseudo-out-of-sample forecasts; output, consumption, investment, wages, hours, inflation, policy/shadow rates and inequality; comparison with Smets–Wouters.
Kaplan–Moll–Violante
Monetary Policy According to HANK		20181,359N/ABoth available
Fortran · ICPSR; licence unclear		US monetary transmission; liquid and illiquid assets; hand-to-mouth households; earnings risk; wealth and MPC distributions; aggregate consumption responses. Scientific replication rather than forecasting.
Sequence-Space Jacobian
One- and two-asset HANK examples		2021245351Python framework + example inputs
MIT; no full US dataset		Steady states, Jacobians, likelihoods, impulse responses and perfect-foresight transitions. Broad modelling framework, not a specific official US empirical model.
Fed Board HANK Comes of Age
Monetary policy with heterogeneous overlapping generations		2024/250*N/ADownloadable materials
No maintained official GitHub repo; licence unclear		US life cycle: age, labour supply, wealth, retirement, MPCs, monetary transmission, asset repricing, consumption and welfare by age.
+
+ +

Source links

+
    +
  1. 1ABBL model code · data · paper · citations
    2. +
  2. 1BFRBNY code · report · citations
    3. +
  3. 2Kaplan–Moll–Violante code/data · paper · citations
    4. +
  4. 3Sequence-Jacobian code · one-asset · two-asset · citations
    5. +
  5. 4HANK Comes of Age paper/materials · DOI · citations
    6. +
+ +
* OpenAlex reports zero citations on the revised DOI record; citations to earlier versions may be split or delayed.“N/A” means no official GitHub repository—not zero popularity.
+
+ + diff --git a/style.css b/style.css index 0bc8c20..5574d4a 100644 --- a/style.css +++ b/style.css @@ -24,6 +24,12 @@ that --brand and --brand-strong resolve to the same AA-passing value. #285E61 = teal-700, 7.33:1 on white. */ --brand-deep: #285E61; + /* Chart series 2. --brand-strong collapsed onto --primary for AA, which + left .vc-s1 and .vc-s2 the same colour, distinguished only by a dash + pattern -- while .vc-lab/.vc-lab2 styled the legend as two colours. + A dark slate keeps the two-series-plus-neutrals restraint and reads + apart from teal in greyscale. 10.4:1 on white. */ + --chart-s2: #334155; /* AA-safe warning text. --text-warning (#c2410c) is only 4.10:1 against the 16%-tinted chip .tag-local paints behind it; #9A3412 is 5.63:1 there. */ --brand-warning: #9A3412; @@ -86,6 +92,12 @@ Cards, code blocks, charts and panels used 2px/3px/6px/8px in different places for the same job. One value now. */ --radius: 8px; + /* Referenced by .section-tabs, the model navs, .contact-email, + .comparison-table row hover and .verification-tag, but never defined -- + so those backgrounds resolved to nothing and the PUBLISHED ANCHOR chips + rendered as bare text while STATUTE/CALIBRATED rendered as pills. */ + --brand-wash: color-mix(in srgb, var(--primary) 8%, transparent); + --radius-card: var(--radius); --radius-sm: 4px; } @@ -1068,8 +1080,8 @@ h2 { } .vchart text { font-family: var(--mono); fill: var(--paper-dim); } .vchart .vc-tick { font-size: 11px; } -.vchart .vc-lab { font-size: 12px; fill: var(--paper); } -.vchart .vc-lab2 { fill: var(--brand-strong); } +.vchart .vc-lab { font-size: 12px; fill: var(--brand); } +.vchart .vc-lab2 { fill: var(--chart-s2); } .vchart .vc-rowlab { font-size: 11.5px; fill: var(--paper-dim); } .vchart .vc-val { font-size: 12px; fill: var(--paper); font-weight: 600; } .vchart .vc-note { font-size: 10.5px; fill: var(--paper-faint); } @@ -1079,11 +1091,14 @@ h2 { /* series 1 = ours, series 2 = the official/published counterpart */ .vchart .vc-s1 { fill: none; stroke: var(--brand); stroke-width: 2; stroke-linejoin: round; } .vchart .vc-s1-dot { fill: var(--brand); } -.vchart .vc-s2 { fill: none; stroke: var(--brand-strong); stroke-width: 2; stroke-dasharray: 5 4; stroke-linejoin: round; } -.vchart .vc-s2-dot { fill: var(--brand-strong); } +.vchart .vc-s2 { fill: none; stroke: var(--chart-s2); stroke-width: 2; stroke-dasharray: 5 4; stroke-linejoin: round; } +.vchart .vc-s2-dot { fill: var(--chart-s2); } .vchart .vc-b1 { fill: var(--brand); } -.vchart .vc-b2 { fill: color-mix(in srgb, var(--paper) 34%, transparent); } -.vchart .vc-b3 { fill: color-mix(in srgb, var(--paper) 18%, transparent); } +/* 34%/18% measured ~2.3:1 and ~1.3:1 on the chart surface, under the 3:1 + WCAG 1.4.11 floor -- and these are the official/comparison bars our numbers + are judged against. */ +.vchart .vc-b2 { fill: color-mix(in srgb, var(--paper) 55%, transparent); } +.vchart .vc-b3 { fill: color-mix(in srgb, var(--paper) 35%, transparent); } .vchart .vc-band90 { fill: color-mix(in srgb, var(--brand) 13%, transparent); } .vchart .vc-band68 { fill: color-mix(in srgb, var(--brand) 26%, transparent); } .current-outlook { margin: 28px 0 8px; } @@ -1443,18 +1458,6 @@ h2 { readable because text no longer fades in (the reveal animation that used to hold copy at opacity:0 is retired). Motion stops under prefers-reduced-motion, handled in field.js. */ -#field { - position: fixed; - inset: 0; - z-index: -2; - width: 100%; - height: 100%; - opacity: 0.55; - pointer-events: none; - -webkit-mask-image: linear-gradient(to bottom, #000 0, #000 42vh, transparent 88vh); - mask-image: linear-gradient(to bottom, #000 0, #000 42vh, transparent 88vh); -} -@media (prefers-color-scheme: dark) { #field { opacity: 0.7; } } /* The verdict band — "how far to trust it" on every model page, and the validation summary. This is the suite's distinguishing claim (each model @@ -1483,4 +1486,6 @@ h2 { @media (max-width: 1000px) { .hf-tick.hf-q { display: initial; } } /* honest-warning cells in validation tables (over-band, imposed, targeted) */ -.vchart .vc-warn, td.vc-warn, th.vc-warn { color: var(--brand-strong); font-weight: 600; } +/* Was --brand-strong: the same teal as links, series 1 and .metric-val, so + "Weak" read in the site's affirmative accent. --brand-warning is AA-tested. */ +.vchart .vc-warn, td.vc-warn, th.vc-warn { color: var(--brand-warning); font-weight: 600; } diff --git a/svar/index.html b/svar/index.html index 42b2807..b7c984a 100644 --- a/svar/index.html +++ b/svar/index.html @@ -28,7 +28,6 @@ -
@@ -177,7 +176,7 @@

Eight variables, six named shocks.

importance-weighted effective sample size of 355.9 — so medians and bands are correct but noisier than the paper's. The hosted forecast conditions on the current vintage — data through - 2026Q1 — with 6,000 draws (430 accepted, ESS 197.9), while retaining + 2026Q1 — with a 2,000-draw default (135 accepted, ESS 65.3), while retaining the 2025Q1 coefficient-estimation endpoint.

@@ -316,7 +315,7 @@

Replicates the paper; beat by outturn on its own frozen forecast.

Forecast-revision adding-up identity - exact per draw (max abs error 5.3e-12) + exact per draw (max abs error 5.23e-12) holds by construction @@ -368,7 +367,7 @@

Where this departs from the Bank's model.

Frozen data edge - Coefficient estimation to 2025Q1; conditioning data to 2026Q1 (refreshed July 2026). Results shift with data revisions; the replication claims are scored on the paper's original sample. + Coefficient estimation to 2025Q1; conditioning data to 2026Q1 (refreshed July 2026). Results shift with data revisions. The replication claims are scored on the extended 1992Q1–2025Q1 sample, not the paper's original 1992Q1–2023Q2 window. Proxied world aggregates @@ -458,6 +457,5 @@

The paper, the code, the method.

}); }); - diff --git a/validation/index.html b/validation/index.html index 3ac11ae..9f3b2cc 100644 --- a/validation/index.html +++ b/validation/index.html @@ -42,7 +42,6 @@ -
@@ -156,7 +155,7 @@

Software fidelity and economic validity are separate.

Evidence dimensionobr-macroboe-svarfrb-us Implementation fidelityModerate — incomplete channelsStrong — restrictions and identities gatedStrong — four gated scenarios at the reference-solver noise floor - Predictive validationWeak — raw GDP 5.75%, consumption 9.56% MAPEModerate — CPI beats no change; GDP does not in rolling testsNot assessed — LONGBASE is not a Fed forecast + Predictive validationWeak — raw GDP 5.75%, consumption 9.56% MAPEModerate — CPI significantly beats no change at short horizons; GDP is statistically indistinguishable from itNot assessed — LONGBASE is not a Fed forecast Identification robustnessNot applicableModerate — proxy data and specification matterNot applicable Policy-counterfactual validityWeak — one independent tax benchmark, constrained channelsNot applicable — reform scoring refusedModerate — published ranges, VAR expectations only Uncertainty calibrationWeak — sensitivity envelopes pendingModerate — posterior bands, limited coverage historyWeak — bootstrap engine exists, public runs remain deterministic @@ -513,7 +512,7 @@

Against a Bank of England paper, and against outturns.

Global shocks = world demand + energy + supply. Ours = 10,000-draw production run; paper values approximate. Global-shock FEVD shares at the one-year horizon: the production run against the paper's published values. Source: papers/boe-svar/figures/comparison_numbers.json and the paper's validation table.
- Why the fast CI configuration lands 7–8 points off + Why the fast CI configuration lands 6–10 points off

The deliberately cheap unweighted CI configuration lands at 49.6% and 43.8% — 6–10 points off, in opposite directions for the two @@ -900,7 +899,7 @@

boe-svar against a random walk, computed from our own runs

boe-svar RMSE relative to a random walk, by horizon - Line chart of RMSE ratios versus a random-walk benchmark at horizons one to eight quarters. UK CPI stays between 0.62 and 0.68 at all horizons, well below the 1.0 parity line. UK real GDP sits between 1.06 and 1.09 at all horizons, slightly above parity. Expanding-window evaluation with 49 origins from 2012Q1 to 2024Q1. + Line chart of RMSE ratios versus a random-walk benchmark at horizons one to eight quarters. UK CPI stays between 0.62 and 0.68 at all horizons, well below the 1.0 parity line, and the difference is statistically significant at short horizons (Diebold-Mariano p below 0.005 at one quarter). UK real GDP sits between 1.06 and 1.09, slightly above parity, but that gap is not statistically significant at any horizon (p from 0.38 to 0.67) — the model is indistinguishable from the benchmark for GDP rather than beaten by it. Expanding-window evaluation with 49 origins from 2012Q1 to 2024Q1. RMSE ÷ random-walk RMSE · horizons 1–8 quarters · below 1.0 beats naive 1.2 @@ -1015,7 +1014,6 @@

Our OBR emulator: replication accuracy, not forecast accuracy

-